Analysis: North Korea's Nuclear TestNorth Korea is in a desperate situation, and the nuclear test just reflects that desperate situation. First, the international isolation of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) or North Korea has been on the increase. Before the end of the Cold War, the DPRK received support from Soviet aligned countries as well as third world nations. But as the economic capacity of South Korea increased, and U.S. hegemony further dominated on the peninsula, DPRK's isolation became more apparent. (lack of big sponsors on par with the U.S.) Currently, countries maintaining a relationship with the DPRK are anti-US countries such as Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, and some middle-of-the-road nations such as China, Russia etc. But these traditional supporters of the DPRK are facing their own waning stability (in Cuba: Castro's increasing age; in Iran: internal conflicts within Amin's state; etc.). In the case of Russia, it already has a number of reality-based plans of actions in case the DPRK should collapse. Even China has other concerns to deal with, like Taiwan. Second, the internal politics in the DPRK are not so unified as supposedly as before. For example, the DPRK has been unable to hold its Workers' Party's National Convention since 1986 (that's a total of over 20 years). Also, the DPRK's power structure is not so-called "normal," as Kim Jong Il is the Chair of the DPRK National Defense Commission, but the rest of the DPRK Defense Commission holds more power above him. As a result, the actions or plans made by the foreign relations part of the DPRK government, which wants to be able to negotiate in good faith, always get superseded by the military faction of the government, which controls everything and wants to continue to use the option of nuclear weapons as a way to deal with the U.S. government. Third, the relations between North and South Korea have taken a turn. You all probably have heard of the ROK/South Korean "Sunshine Policy" of engagement with North Korea/DPRK. That for the most is still going on. But while there used to be an overall general nationalistic empathy towards North Korea among the left, the center, and even among some of the rightist conservative sectors of South Korean society and government, that has changed, especially among the center and right, due to harsh rhetorical attacks by the DPRK government of the ROK's political scene, especially of the conservative Grand National Party (for example, the DPRK stated that if the Grand National Party comes into power, it'll bomb Seoul). Even traditionally neutral sectors of South Korean society have been stirred by these rhetorical attacks. In addition, it has recently been leaked the US/ROK contingency plan should the DPRK collapse. That has greatly angered the DPRK government and deteriorated relations somewhat. Even the "Sunshine Policy" itself has been tainted by internal corruption (anyone can claim to be an aid agency helping the North) and co-optation by the rightist propagandists (people visiting the North supposedly for tours will come back and release statements on how bad it is there). Fourth, in the meantime, the people of North Korea do not get anything out of this. Yes, there have been reports of better harvests recently, and that is a good thing. Yet, North Korea still faces food shortages, and let us not forget the energy crisis that it faces, in part due to the U.S. cut-off of oil shipments as it originally committed in the 1994 Agreed Frameworks. The human rights situation still exists, and will continue to exist if North Korea becomes further isolated. So what does all of this mean as the DPRK has conducted its first nuclear test (albeit a weak one) and has hinted very strongly at conducting a second one; as the UN has recently passed Resolution 1718 to impose sanctions (albeit a little weak) on DPRK/North Korea; as Condoleeza Rice is doing a promotion tour in East Asia for the sanctions to supposedly "stick" and for the Proliferative Security Initiative against DPRK to be adopted? On the one hand, the sanctions won't really do anything except fuel more rhetorical, hopefully not actualized, counter-threats from the DPRK. The DPRK is already isolated to the point of desperation, and that is why the nuclear test materialized. For example, the U.S. has already basically forced other countries to freeze DPRK's assets abroad due to the supposed counterfeiting and drug-trafficking it accuses DPRK of. On the other hand, the DPRK is running out of time and options, while the U.S. doesn't really care for the most part and has all the time in the world. Even DPRK's third world coalition partners (like Cuba and Venezuela) have condemned the nuclear test. And whether or not DPRK develops one or ten nuclear weapons, the people still cannot eat that, literally and figuratively. The two biggest sources of aid to North Korea are China (#1) and South Korea (#2). China is participating in the sanctions, although with conditions. But China is afraid of a collapse of the DPRK government, for it will flood the border crossings with refugees, extremely affecting the Chinese economic reforms. If the DPRK collapses, then the U.S. becomes more dominant on the Korean peninsula. South Korea is not really bothered by the nuclear test. As always, the far left is crying "Hands Off North Korea" to the U.S., and the far right is attacking the DPRK. In other words, the same old same old. The South Korean stock market fell only one day after the DPRK nuclear test and bounced right back up the next day. South Korean tourism to Mount Kumgang in the North is still maintaining a 70% level from before, even though it is tainted by rightist propagandists, and despite the U.S. warnings to South Korea to end supposedly funding the DPRK government activities. South Korean groups and individuals are still going up North for support work. The ROK Roh, Moohyun government is still trying to maintain a centrist route in addressing this situation. However, if the DPRK miscalculates and instead further alienates these two major sources of aid, China and South Korea, it is heading further down the road to collapse, and that will be very bad for the whole region. Japan may be happy at all this, even though it is the most worried of the nations in East Asia. Although a victim of nuclear weapons, there is still a major faction that wants to be like the U.S. in East Asia, and the hawks in the Japanese government, despite recent statements on the contrary, want any kind of excuse (like for self-defense, as the DPRK is saying) to nuclearize and militarize Japan. So what should be done to resolve this? Of course, negotiations must be the course of action, but the content of these talks, NOT what form this takes is the real issue. There was a glimmer of hope in the September 19, 2005 Joint Statement that resulted from the 6-party talks among DPRK/North Korea, ROK/South Korea, U.S., Russia, Japan, and China. In this statement, the DPRK agreed to abandon its nuclear weapons program in exchange for the U.S. (and the rest of the world) to accept the North Korean/DPRK state in the international community. If at least the intended spirit of this joint statement can be revisited, then real progress can be made. The U.S. needs to be a key player in this and REALLY pursue the negotiation route (not just say it's going to do it, but actually do it). We in the U.S. must dog the U.S. until it goes the route of peace AND dealing with the DPRK as a member of the international community (not as a "rogue" state). At the same time, and just as importantly, North Korea/DPRK really needs to step up in action for peace on the peninsula. In the past, it has strategically and successfully stood its ground in relation to the U.S. --- something that other nations have not really been able to do --- but now, the old strategy is running out of leverage, and the DPRK is unfortunately in a desperate situation and running out of options. Main message is this: The U.S. is responsible, at least in part, and that is still a very large part, for the events that resulted in the DPRK's first nuclear weapons test. However, in order for this situation to resolve, the DPRK, as well as but not just the U.S., needs to make a bold move in ensuring peace on the Korean peninsula. For more background information: |